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Part 4 is here: As momentum builds in the developing deflationary spiral, we are seeing increasingly desperate measures to keep the global credit Ponzi scheme from its inevitable conclusion.
Credit bubbles are dynamic — they must grow continually or implode — hence they require ever more money to be lent into existence. But that in turn requires a plethora of willing and able borrowers to maintain demand for new credit money, lenders who are not too risk-averse to make new loans, and apparently effective mechanisms for diluting risk to the point where it can apparently safely be ignored.
As the peak of a credit bubble is reached, all these necessary factors first become problematic and then cease to be available at all. Past a certain point, there are hard limits to financial expansions, and the global economy is set to hit one imminently. Borrowers are increasingly maxed out and afraid they will not be able to service existing loans, let alone new ones.
Many businesses are already struggling to sell goods and services, and so are unwilling to borrow in order to expand their activities. Without willingness to borrow, demand for new loans will fall substantially.
As risk factors loom, lenders unit 6 lop 12 writing a resume far more risk-averse, often very quickly losing trust in the solvency of of their counterparties. As we saw inthe transition from embracing risky prospects to avoiding them like the plague can be very rapid, changing the rules of the game very abruptly.
The securitized instruments previously created then cease to be perceived as holding value, leading to them being repriced at pennies on the dollar once price discovery occurs, and the destruction of that value is highly deflationary. The continued existence of risk becomes increasingly evident, and the realisation that that risk could be catastrophic begins to dawn.
Natural limits for both borrowing and lending threaten the capacity to prolong the credit boom any further, meaning that even if central authorities are prepared to pay almost any price to do so, it ceases to be possible to kick the can further down the road.
Negative interest rates and the war on cash are symptoms of such a limit being reached. As confidence evaporates, so does liquidity. This is where we find ourselves at the moment — on the cusp of phase two of the credit crunch, sliding into the same unavoidable constellation of conditions we saw inbut on a much larger scale.
This zero interest rate policy ZIRP is a reflection of both the extreme complacency as to risk during the rise into the peak of a major bubble, and increasingly acute pressure to keep the credit mountain growing through constant stimulation of demand for borrowing.
The resulting search for yield in a world of artificially stimulated over-borrowing has lead to an extraordinary array of malinvestment across many sectors of the real economy. Ever more excess capacity is being built in a world facing a severe retrenchment in aggregate demand.
This is, of course, one definition of insanity. Now that financial crisis conditions are developing again, policies are being implemented which amount to an even greater intensification of the old strategy.
In many locations, notably those perceived to be safe havens, the benchmark is moving from a zero interest rate policy to a negative interest rate policy NIRPinitially for bank reserves, but potentially for business clients for instance in Holland and the UK.
Individual savers would be next in line. Punishing savers, while effectively encouraging banks to lend to weaker, and therefore riskier, borrowers, creates incentives for both borrowers and lenders to continue the very behaviour that set the stage for financial crisis in the first place, while punishing the kind of responsibility that might have prevented it.
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During expansionary times, when risk perception is low almost across the board despite actual risk steadily increasingthe risk premium that interest rates represent shows relatively little variation between different lenders, and little volatility.
For instance, the interest rates on sovereign bonds across Europe, prior to financial crisis, were low and broadly similar for many years.
In other words, credit spreads were very narrow during that time.
However, as collective psychology shifts from unity to fragmentation, risk perception increases dramatically, and risk distinctions of all kinds emerge, with widening credit spreads. We saw this happen inand it can be expected to be far more pronounced in the coming years, with credit spreads widening to record levels.
Interest rate divergences create self-fulfilling prophecies as to relative default risk, against a backdrop of fear-driven high volatility. Many risk distinctions can be made — government versus private debt, long versus short term, economic center versus emerging markets, inside the European single currency versus outside, the European center versus the troubled periphery, high grade bonds versus junk bonds etc.
As the risk distinctions increase, the interest rate risk premiums diverge.The best place to get cheats, codes, cheat codes, walkthrough, guide, FAQ, unlockables, tricks, and secrets for Grand Theft Auto: San Andreas for PC.
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